Yellen Testimonies Make March rising rates unlikely that OPEC Comment Stop Decline oil
The week of February 5-12 was defined by a flight to safe haven. The biggest winners were compared to USD JPY and CHF, as investors sought less risky assets. Oil had another rollercoaster price changes that the comments of the International Energy Agency (IEA) have exerted downward pressure until the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by via the United Arab Emirates energy gentleman made a comment about a possible production cut agreement that has helped crude prices rebound Thursday
.Chinese markets reopen after the Lunar Holiday and they should make up the overall stock market losses that could trigger another selloff. The US and Canada markets will be closed on Monday for holidays. The Fed will publish the minutes of its January meeting. Going by the Fed President Janet Yellen, AOS testimony of the central bank is optimistic about the US economy, but concern about global growth. Retail sales outside the US on February 12, validated the Fed, AOS see.
There will be a large number of economic releases this week. inflation data from the UK will be published Tuesday, February 16 at 04:30. The FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday, February 17 at 14:00 ET, and inflation figures are available for Canada and the United States Friday, February 19 at 08:30 EST.
UK No deflationary Woods Yet
inflation British flat in 2015, despite record on December 1. consumer prices at the end of the year increased by 0.2 percent and while keeping the ghost of deflation at bay, the U.K. is still dangerously close to the edge. The Bank of England will be in no hurry to raise rates. Some analysts put down 2020 as the first rate hike could occur. More conservative estimates excluded 2016 and put the first rate hike by the BoE in the first quarter of 2017.
food and energy have maintained the growth of inflation. This has been a boon to consumers who have passed these savings in other goods and services. The inflation target for the BoE's 2 percent and wage growth to 2 percent from 2.4 percent last year inflationary pressures are moderate. According to the IEA oil prices continue at current levels for now. The agency called for a low price point because they could not see them go to $ 10, but also because of the oversupply gift, AOT wait a hasty rebound. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the other hand began to hint at a possible member agree to curb production. Just the index boosted energy prices by nearly 8 percent. Although they will still end the week negative 4.85 percent.
The United Kingdom, AOS consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show growth of 0.3 percent in January. The inflation measure is the key to the Bank of England. An increase is positive although the rate should be higher if the BoE to raise rates at any time in 2016.
Testimony Yellen Fed Reaffirms AOS Stance
the Federal Open market Committee (FOMC) minutes will be published Wednesday, February 17 have the potential to create disturbances on the market, but it will be limited because three weeks have elapsed between January meeting, OSA FOMC and publication notes. The US Federal Reserve has chosen not to raise rates in January. The market had expected the Fed tape after the first two weeks of the year have radically changed the macroeconomic outlook with significant sales outside actions in China and the oil price drop like a stone affecting the currencies of products based. With no press conference after the meeting, the market was uncertain about what the Fed members think of the global economy.
Fed President Janet Yellen, AOS two testimonies this week provided an answer to these questions. President Yellen continues to believe in the moderate growth in the US Most of the risks in its future perspective from the outside. The fragility of the global recovery is being processed from the lower and emerging energy prices and the slowdown in developed markets. After the credit crisis has developed down markets, but emerging markets growth pack. Now the downturn is part of all contracts with a few exceptions. The minutes of the December FOMC minutes showed that although the vote to raise interest rates was unanimous, there were several Fed members who were unsure. These fears were proved right as in a few weeks the economic scenario has changed for the worse. A second rate hike seems less likely by the day. Today, CME tool AOS FedWatch 100 percent chance of no rate change at the FOMC meeting in March and chances remain high until the end of the year with December showing 76.4 percent no change for 2016.
Forex events to watch next week:
Sunday, February 14
6:50 p.m. JPY prelim GDP q / q
Attempting CNY trade balance
Monday, February 15
9:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
4:45 p.m. NZD Retail Sales q / q
7: 30 AUD pm Minutes of monetary policy
NZD 9:00 p.m. Expectations inflation q / q
Tuesday, February 16
provisional decision EUR German Constitutional Court
4:30 GBP CPI y / y
5:00 EUR German ZEW economic sentiment
8:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales m / m
Wednesday, February 17
04:30 GBP Index of average earnings 3m / y
4:30 GBP Claimant Count Change
8:30 USD building permits
8:30 USD PPI m / m
2:00 p.m. USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
4:45 p.m. NZD PPI Input q / q
7:30 p.m. AUD employment Change
Thursday, February 18
8:30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
8:30 USD unemployment claims
11:00 am USD crude oil inventories
Friday, February 19
4:30 GBP retail sales m / m
8:30 CAD core CPI m / m
8:30 CAD base of retail sales m / m
8:30 USD CPI m / m
8:30 USD core CPI m / m
* All times EST
for a complete list of events planned in the foreign exchange market check the economic calendar MarketPulse
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