The US central bank to keep rates unchanged but focus on forecasts
provided central banks will honor the US Federal reserve, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss national Bank (SNB) will announce monetary policy decisions. The market expects no change across the board, but expects some of the rhetoric to fill the void of monetary policy measures. The coming weeks will be full of economic events and with uncertain results volatility is expected to increase.
The (FOMC) meeting in June Federal Open Market Committee will end with the publication of the statement, economic projections Wednesday, June 15 at 14:00 EDT. President Janet Yellen will make a prepared statement and questions of address form the financial press. The US central bank is not expected to offer a higher interest rate meeting. Rising short-term rates in June got a new life after the FOMC minutes were released in April. the April statement was not followed by a press conference, leaving the market with little guidance. The window for a rate hike is down that employment could be losing momentum after a disappointing US non-farm employment (NFP) report earlier this month.
The Bank of England (BoE) will be under the microscope a week before the British referendum on EU membership. The staff of the Central Bank has been accused of partisanship by leave of supporters as he issued warnings about the negative effects of Brexit. Last month, Governor Mark Carney said a Brexit vote could trigger a "technical recession". The BoE will publish its summary of monetary policy and the minutes of the meeting, Thursday, June 16 at 07:00 EDT.
EUR / USD expected in June FOMC
The EUR / USD lost 0.278 percent in the last 5 days. The pair is trading at 1.1297 and while the EUR will go before next week full of uncertainty. The most important short-lived USD rally was the publication of the minutes of the FOMC in April that put the June interest rate hike on the table. Mixed economic data and weak NFP took again. The speech of the Fed president Janet Yellen 6 June did little to keep the rise in life June rate.
Energy Prices Get Boost from US Lower inventory
oil prices have had a volatile week. West Texas crude gained 1.98 percent this week. Trading in a range between 51.37 and 47.93 WTI ending near $ 50. US crude oil inventories released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) were in line with a collection of 3.2 million barrels. The report of the previous week showed a negative variation of 4.2 million barrels held in inventory. Disruptions in Nigeria and Canada, added to the appreciation of the stock. There are signs that the normal supply will resume soon in Canada, and with the Organization of petroleum exporting countries members (OPEC) breaking the record production levels, prices could be under pressure. Energy prices reached stability this year as Russia and Saudi Arabia have started to feel each other with public statements about a possible freezing of oil production. The deal never materialized, but he curbed the decline in crude prices as producers engaged in dialogue. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have already reversed their forecasts and now see higher than their estimates the bottom has been reached with oil.
June Fed rate DOA But July and September Rising
The FOMC statement released on April 27 provided few clues on what the Fed members thought . The US economy has seen improvement, but after a difficult start of the year, the market had stripped back the number of rate increases to 1-2 this year. This meeting was no press conference so that all investors is due to three weeks later, the minutes of that meeting were published. The story suddenly changed without a central bank commitment with minor changes to a statement, a pro-active FOMC awaited economic recovery enough signal to start another increase in interest rates. Rising rate rose in June from a non-event back on the table and triggered a USD rally. Mixed economic data and in particular the lower than expected NFP that only added 38,000 jobs put back probabilities to single digits.
CME FedWatch tools shows a 4 percent chance of a change in interest rates, Wednesday, June 15. On July FOMC (no press conference) has a 24 percent rate hike in September (press conference) 38 percent in November (no press conference) 41 percent
and December (conference press) 60 percent. It will be interesting to see how the point parcel published Wednesday, June 15 games against market expectations. Given the presidential race will be in full swing in September, it might be less likely that the Fed will act, leaving in July (no press conference) and December (press conference) that clear options.
Focus on BOE Survey Brexit as increase in consulting rates next year
The Bank of England does not need recluse to comment on Brexit the referendum in economy as they were during the making of the general elections. This left the Old Lady opened to the attacks as his staff warned against the negative effects of an exit poll. The main task of the central bank risks flag and at the moment there is no greater risk than the next referendum vote. Bank expected to keep rates at record low of 0.50 percent unchanged.
The GBP / USD has lost 1.287 percent last week trading at 1.4344 pair Some surveys came out showing off gain an upper hand. The uncertainty of the vote result Brexit hurt the GBP and could influence voters that the BoE warned that a victory would hurt to leave the short and medium term currency.
A familiar foe BoE has spoken this week. George Soros the billionaire businessman who made his name by betting against the central bank said a Brexit mean the end of the European Union. The investor is part of a trend traders seeking refuge in assets such as gold, pending the results of the next few weeks on the US monetary policy and Brexit referendum.
market events to watch this week:
Tuesday, June 14
4:30 GBP CPI y / y
8:30 USD based sales retail m / m
8:30 USD retail sales m / m
Wednesday, June 15
4:30 GBP Index of average earnings 3m / y
4:30 GBP Claimant Count Change
8:30 CAD manufacturing sales m / m
8:30 USD PPI m / M0.3% 0.2%
10:30 am USD crude oil Inventories
index indicative price NZD TDM
2:00 p.m. USD FOMC economic Projections
2: 24:00 USD FOMC Statement
2:00 p.m. USD Federal Funds Rate
2:30 p.m. USD FOMC Press Conference
6:45 p.m. NZD GDP q / q
7:55 p.m. CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
9: 30pm AUD employment Change
AUD unemployment rate
provisional monetary policy Statement JPY
Thursday, June 16
Attempting JPY BOJ Press Conference
3:30 CHF Libor rate
3:30 CHF SNB assessment of monetary policy
3:30 CHF SNB Press Conference
4:30 GBP retail sales m / m
7:00 Votes GBP MPC official discount rate
7:00 Summary of monetary policy GBP
7:00 GBP official discount rate
8:30 USD CPI m / m
8:30 USD core CPI m / m
8:30 amUSD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
8:30 USD unemployment claims
Friday 17 June
8:30 CAD core CPI m / m
8:30 USD building permits
11:00 EUR ECB President Draghi speaks
* All times EDT
for a full list of events planned in the foreign exchange market check the economic calendar MarketPulse
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