Time Table
Bears have a great start in December with the gold price to pay US $ 30 per ounce yesterday. This is a huge surprise considering that expectations for prices to trade on the given side all risks coming news of the event (not least the FOMC meeting in December in two weeks) coupled with the slowdown in volume in December . While the price has always been bearish below 1255 but the decline yesterday was much stronger than expected with 1,235 and 1,225 support levels being broken easily without any significant bullish response
There were of good reasons for the decline if -. US ISM manufacturing for November came much stronger than expected yesterday, punching a 57.3 vs. 55.1 expected and 54.3 previous. And it's not all good news - Markit PMI US was also higher at 54.7 vs. 54.3 expected while October construction spending was up 0.8% compared to an expected 0.4%. Beyond America's shores, China's PMI figures, France, UK, Italy and Germany were better than expected. This increased speculation that the Fed would go ahead with a cone cutting Action (most probably in early 2014) and pushed the price of gold.
However, the price comparison US Stock, gold prices are certainly much more bearish given the same overall economic context. Therefore, the risk of a bullish downturn is high while gold traders may be the only group that is still betting strongly on a "cone / No Type" guessing game (most other traders have already moved and believe that a cone December will not happen). However, from a technical point of view, we are still bearish below 1,225, and retailers expect a decline should request confirmation of the reversal that the market can stay irrational longer sure that we are solvent.
Weekly Chart
weekly chart remains bearish, but the magnitude of the decline continued through the rest of the year 2013 may be suspect. Even if we trade lower here, the price will probably find significant support in 2013 Swing Low 1180 because this is the price action will meet the bottom of the channel, if the present rate continues to decline. In addition, stochastic readings are in the oversold region currently favoring a bullish potential decline going forward -. Probably coinciding with a rebound in 1180 that can open a Top channel pass again
Basically it just n 't a good reason to buy gold right now (he was never a good reason buying gold itself?). Inflation risk is low, while its shelters properties are not in demand at the moment with high-performing stock markets. In addition, with gold set the clock in the first year of decline in 13, we could see a more bearish sentiment coming out of the woods at the beginning of 2014, which can trigger a bearish landslide if popular opinion on an early 2014 Cone Fed proves to be correct. However, bearish traders will certainly need to wait for the right moment for now, that gold traders / speculators still play the game guess cone, which means that if the Fed keeps QE as it is in the December meeting FOMC as expected, the upward reaction can be strong. . Therefore, caution is always highly recommended, even if the downward victory is almost assured, more aggressive bearish games are very risky and unwise
Links:
GBP / USD - Eases Away from two-year high at 1.6350
AUD / USD - turns and looks towards 0.0 again
EUR / USD - falls key level at 1.3550
This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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