The global financial markets in 2015 were fired between two opposing forces: The first was the decision of the Reserve Federal raise interest rates as the US job market strengthened. The second was the pressure for lower interest rates in much of the rest of the world that economic growth in China has slowed and prices of commodities sank.
These two themes dominate again the first trading day of the new year, investors are being welcomed with aversion to risk-term bond rally when the stock markets fall. Expect dollars "great" leadership to be driven primarily by two key reports later this week -. The report December US NFP on Friday and the last FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday
China halts stock trading after the defeat trips the circuit breaker. PMI disappointing figures in China (December Caixin Man PMI 48.2 vs. 48.9e - 10th contraction right) and India (December PMI Man: 49.1 vs. 50.3 prior - first contraction in 26 readings and the lowest since August 2013) during the night stock market red light. Both domestic and external demand from two of the greatest nations of the world has already had a significant impact on currencies sensitive commodity (AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD). Shanghai Composite China halted trading after the outbreak of a new circuit A-share at -7%. India's economic data confirms that the country has moved to contraction for the first time in over two years, partly as a result of devastating floods last month. The Reserve Bank of (RBI) of India continued depreciation of the INR outright will only grow higher inflation, with more currency weakness for additional pressure of business through costs higher import.
In FX, the application of risk aversion USD / JPY down -150 pips (¥ 118.84), the AUD lower -100 pips (a $ 0.7210) CAD down about -0 pips (at $ 1.3934), while the EUR / NOK traded to a high of seven years (€ 9.6843 ). The "single unit" was able to reverse its earlier losses to trade above € 1.0910 as proof of EM turbulence could affect the pace of expected "four" of Fed rate hikes in 2016.
China Yuan weakens to new lows of four years. the yuan will be the most watched currency for 2016. People's Bank of China (PBoC) has pushed the value of the yuan down for the fifth day in her daily dose (¥ 6.510 + 0.30% ). Yuan sea levels continue to decline at a faster pace than on earth - .. A sign that the market expects the PBoC to weaken the yuan further
The geopolitical tensions supporting prices oil crude prices rallied nearly 3% in early trade above $ 38.10 (WTI contract February) as sectarian tensions Saudi- Iran has the market concerned about the possibility of supply disruptions. Oil prices have since made some of these previous earnings ($ 37.78).
Japanese data improves. Japan PMI was again resisted well (Final December manufacturing PMI 52.6 vs 52.5 prelim) .. This suggests that the official GDP figure for Q4 2015 could signal some growth. Coupled with the positive rhetoric of PM Abe, who noted that their economy is firmly on a recovery path with Japan no longer in deflation gave the yen some support.
are of mixed, European morning PMI Manufacturing December. The euro area, Germany, Italy, Turkey and the Czech Republic has managed to beat all expectations, while the UK, France, Spain and Poland have all failed.
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