USD / CAD has posted slight losses in European session Friday as the pair trades at 1.3070. In economic news, Canada publishes the core CPI, a key inflation indicator. The estimate is 0.3%. If the core CPI fails to meet expectations, the Canadian dollar may lose ground. There is only one American release on the calendar, the manufacturing PMI. Little change is expected in the October report.
The Bank of Canada has made interest rates earlier this week lower, while the rate remained at 0.50%. However, the Canadian dollar fell sharply after the central bank painted a gloomy picture of the Canadian economy. The BOC noted that low oil prices have had a negative impact on the export sector and hamper economic growth. BOC issued a report on monetary policy which stated that the Canadian economy will grow only 2 percent in 2016 and 2.5 percent in 2017, lower than the previous forecast of 2.3 percent and 2.6 hundred. Low growth will delay the BOC to raise interest rate hikes, which would help boost the Canadian dollar.
There was positive news on the US on Thursday, as unemployment claims, a release of the key, came in at 259,000, beating the estimate of 266,000. This is slightly higher than the previous reading of 255,000, but marked the third consecutive week that the indicator has beaten forecasts. The four-week average of claims moving, reducing the volatility of weekly unemployment reports, is currently at its lowest level since 1973. These figures indicate a strong labor market, but the next big test comes early November with the release of non-farm jobs. Meanwhile, sales of existing homes had a banner in September, improving 5.55 million, crushing the estimate of 5.38 million. We will have a look at the additional housing indicators next week.
Recent data from the United States was not a strong as hoped, with key figures of sending a mixed message on the health of the economy. This reduced the likelihood of a rate hike by the Fed before the end of 2015. Markets remain frustrated with the lack of Fed communication with the markets as FOMC members continue to send mixed messages Fed's plans. However, improved US data, particularly the employment indicators and consumption, could quickly revive speculation about a rate hike and boost the US dollar. Next week promises to be interesting, as the Fed releases a policy statement after its meeting. This will be followed by the release of Advance GDP report, a market event mover.
USD / CAD Fundamentals
Friday (October 23)
- 24:30 Canadian core CPI. Estimated 0.3%
- 1:45 p.m. US flash manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.8 points.
* Key releases are highlighted in bold
* All GMT release time
USD / CAD for Friday, October 23, 2015
USD / CAD October 23 at 11:20 GMT
USD / CAD 1.3070 H: L 1.3111: 1.3051
USD / technical CAD
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1.2798 | 1.2930 | 1.3063 | 1.3165 | 1.3213 | 1.3327 |
- USD / CAD showed little movement in Asian and European sessions.
- 1.3165 is a weakened line
- 1.3063 spent in a supporting role after recent strong gains in USD / CAD
- beach current: 1.3063 to 1.3165 ..
other levels in both directions
- below: 1.3063, 1, 2930, 1.2798 and 1.2646
- above: 1.3165, 1.3213 and 1.3327
O Ratio Open positions ANDA
USD / CAD ratio shows no change Friday that long positions have a slight majority of jobs (53%). This is indicative of a slight bias by traders towards USD / CAD continues to move higher.
This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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