The Canadian dollar traded in a narrow range against the USD as the weak fundamentals in the US canceled the drop in oil prices after the doubts increased about the price of crude Doha gel.
the USD has not won the support of the publication of data after the factory orders for goods of the United States posted a loss of 1.7 percent. The index of conditions in the labor market posted a -2.1, with a silver lining as it improved slightly in the last months -2.7. The US dollar has not gained ground since the meeting in March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The statement and the press conference accommodative by the US central bank has market participants reduce the possibility of previously planned rate hikes down 4 to 2 in 2016. Given that this year is an election year, the most likely scenario is a rate hike from the FOMC meeting candidates distributed between June and December.
USD / CAD gained 0.50 percent over the past 24 hours. The fall in oil prices after comments from Saudi Arabia during the weekend refers to any agreement to meet in Doha, if Iran does not agree to the gel. Iran has already denied their involvement as their production is simply rise after more than a decade of sanctions. Iranian production should almost double just to return to pre-sanction levels, at which point he might decide to freeze production.
The tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran for diplomatic reasons has been a constant threat to the organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) and Russia freeze on oil production. The discussions back and forth managed to stabilize the price of crude, but possible mercurial temperaments of all members of the top do it for a volatile agreement.
Employment remains the strongest pillar and stronger recovery of the US economy. Last week, the American nonfarm (NFP) increased by 215,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.0 from 4.9 percent, but due to a larger turnout which sends a signal of positive growth. Previous reports NFP failed to inspire a USD rally despite their many jobs as exceeding expectations because wage growth indicators declined. On the report of Friday's salary rose 0.3 percent in March to check a box to an overall positive employment report. forecasts dovish Fed was not carried away by an NFP report quite positive but not strong.
The release of the FOMC minutes Mars could put additional downward pressure on the dollar when they are published Wednesday, April 6 at 2:00 pm EDT. Comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther L. George will be actively sought as she was the lone dissenter on the vote to keep interest rates unchanged. Fed facts and official statements stressed the caution with which the central bank will address the decision to raise rates in the future. The patient's position has made the market punish the USD against other pairs as it is unlikely that there will be over 2 rate hikes in 2016, when at the end of 2015 the expectation supported by forecasts the Fed was twofold.
Canadian data should boost the CAD, the balance of trade because of the Tuesday, April 5 expected to show healthy growth in exports pushing the final trade data in surplus. Canadian PMI data, housing data and employment will react the loonie during the week that the minutes of the Fed and the comments of President Yellen and dissident retention rates Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George.
Events USD / CAD to watch this week:
Tuesday, April 5
8:30 CAD Trade Balance
10:00 USD ISM non -Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday, April 6
10:30 USD stocks of crude oil
2:00 p.m. USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, April 7
claims 8: 30 USD unemployment
5:30 p.m. USD Fed President Yellen Speaks
Friday, April 8
8:30 CAD employment Change
8:30 CAD unemployment rate
* All times EDT
for a full list of events planned for the visit of the foreign exchange market the economic calendar MarketPulse
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