After Lucky Friday 13 USD Cool With dovish FOMC Minutes and low inflation
Friday 13 is generally regarded as an unlucky day, but the USD rally has been given a boost by data on retail sales come in above expectations. Sales in core retail (less auto) was 0.8 percent in April and the number of sales in respect of detail provided for a loss of 0.3 percent came to a gain of 1.3 percent. The US consumer seems to come with high annual marking of purchases. The survey by the University of Michigan consumer confidence came in at 95.8 a high of 12 months. The previous gap between sentiment and spending reduced in favor of the greenback.
inflation data will guide the foreign exchange market the week of May 16 to 20. The UK will release its inflation report Tuesday, May 17 at 4:30 pm EDT. The US will release the same day at 8:30 am EDT. Canada will release its consumer price index, Friday, May 20 at 08:30 EDT. inflation data in the US is the most widely anticipated because it could provide insight into the way of future rate hikes.
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) in April will be published Wednesday, May 18 at 14:00 EDT. At their meeting on April 27 the Fed issued a statement that lowered risks overseas, but admitted to a slowing US economy. The strong US employment and retail sales data is showing the first quarter slowdown may be temporary. Replace the June FOMC on the table is still premature, but the growth of the positive inflation would for a summer hiking more compelling US interest rates.
The EUR / USD fell 0.734 percent after the dollar got a boost from a retail surprise core issue. The pair is trading at 1.1322, which is close to the low of the session. The American consumer is roaring back after being away in the first quarter. Given the strong contribution to growth in the economy, it was positive for the USD as the two retail sales data and consumer confidence were both above expectations.
The USD advanced across the board as other major currencies retreated after the generally pessimistic indicator gave hope that the US slowdown is not as severe and could rise power resulting in a rate hike later this year. The USD / CAD advanced 0,853 percent over the past 24 hours. The loonie depreciated by lower oil prices and the resurgence of the US dollar as there was no Canadian release data.
The price of oil was caught between the concerns of oversupply that OPEC (OPEC) continues to pump at record levels and disruption of production in Canada, Libya and Nigeria. Non-OPEC production, notably in North America declined along with lower prices, but OPEC production continues to reach record levels that sanctions against Iran were lifted and oil nation who wants to catch up and regain lost market share.
crude prices stable around $ 45 per barrel after the release of the oil from freezing gossip released the same spiral acceleration concerns that excess supply remains. Higher prices climb the more attractive it will be for producers who have been hit by falling prices for restart operations, exacerbating the crude glut as demand remains slow. The release of US oil inventories Wednesday, May 18 at 10:30 will guide the oil price. The surprise drop in US inventories reported this week boosted crude prices and a subsequent report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said they expect the price of Brent to hover around $ 76 per barrel the next year.
FOMC Minutes show Fed members Divided
The FOMC April was a mixed affair. On one hand, the Fed removes language around risk abroad, but on the other hand, he admitted to the weakness of economic growth in the United States. Since the Fed meeting in April was no press conference on the market has been guided by the statement that had very minor changes. The minutes of the April 27 meeting, fill in the blanks on how are divided Fed members on monetary policy. The unanimous vote in December seems the result of pressure from President Janet Yellen rather than the result of individual evaluations by FOMC members. The minutes will be analyzed for clues about a possible rate rise in June, however small the tool FedWatch possibility.The by CME points to 7.5 percent chance of a rate hike in June, to nearly 20 percent in July and 34 percent in September.
Forex market events to watch this week:
Monday, May 16
AUD 9:30 pm Minutes of Monetary Policy
11:00 p.m. NZD inflation expectations q / q
Tuesday, May 17
4:30 GBP CPI y / y
8:30 CAD manufacturing sales m / m
8:30 allowed USD Construction
8:30 USD CPI m / m
8:30 USD core CPI m / m
6:45 p.m. NZD PPI Input q / q
Wednesday, May 18
4:30 GBP Index of average earnings 3m / y
GBP Claimant Count Change
10:30 am USD crude oil inventories
2:00 p.m. USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Change AUD 9:30 p.m. employment
Thursday, May 19
4:30 GBP retail sales m / m
8:30 USD Fed Manufacturing index Philly
8:30 USD unemployment claims
Friday, May 20
8:30 CAD core CPI m / m
8:30 CAD based retail sales m / m
* All times EDT
for a complete list of scheduled events in the forex market check the economic calendar MarketPulse
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