The US added fewer jobs than expected in January but up wage USD Boosted
the non-farm payroll (NFP) US report released Friday showed a slowdown as the number of jobs. The US economy added 151,000 jobs in January coming in the forecast 10,000 market. In December the economy has a huge 292,000 (now revised down to 252,000) and fewer planned. Hourly wages rose in January by 0.5 percent. The unemployment rate also declined to 4.9 percent given the pace of job gains in 2015. The current unemployment rate in the US is the lowest since November 07.
L the effect of the miss on the title NFP number is cut in light of the impact on an increase in rates already improbable by the Federal reserve of the United States in March. macro-economic conditions have changed dramatically in December when the Fed announced its historic first rate hike in a decade. The monitoring of this policy decision will not come in March if US fundamentals continue slowdown.
The economic calendar for next week is lighter than usual as most major central banks jump in February. The highlight will be the testimony of US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen as part of its semi-annual report on monetary policy. President Yellen will face questions from the Financial Services Committee of the House Wednesday, February 11 at 10:00 EST and the Senate Banking Committee Thursday, February 12 at 10:00 am EST. Investors will be watching for comments on the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on March 15 and 16.
Fed Chairman Gets Chance to Add Clarity Forecasts
US Chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen testify twice during the week when she delivers the Report semi-annual monetary policy to the special committees of the House and Senate. Each session will be the head of the Fed press a prepared statement and answered questions of the Committee members. Since there is no Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) in February this gives Yellen a chance to reassure the market about the Fed's intentions regarding potential monetary policy decisions. The second increase will be announced in late March FOMC meeting increased the probability after the wage rate and the highest unemployment, despite the lower than expected NFP title.
The Fed forecasts 4 interest rate in 2016. The central bank decided to keep rates during the meeting and basic other than the employment component in December slowed even more between this week and the middle of March the US economy is expected to improve significantly for the Fed to hike again. It is too early for the Fed to cut its forecast, but again the street already, with 2 to 3 rate hikes instead of 4. Given that it is a US presidential election year that could also limit the Fed's ability to change monetary policy during periods sensitive policies that preceded the final vote.
US Consumers Confident But Spending Still Not
The paradox of the American consumer continues to confound economists. Wages and the number of jobs reached before the crisis levels, and consumer confidence is high, but as their confidence remains high in the short term, they chose to save. The US economy depends on consumer spending and retail sales disappointed with a few exceptions in the past two years. Most of the gatherings that start NFP came in an accident after retail sales deplorable despite the warmer weather.
Energy savings due to low gas prices has not translated into consumer spending and until that happens the number of retail sales remain weak. global uncertainty adds to local difficulties to encourage consumers to watch their spending prevents a virtuous circle as the economy improves
FX events to watch this week :.
Wednesday, February 10
4:30 GBP Manufacturing Production m / m
10:00 USD Fed President Yellen TESTIFY
10:30 USD stocks of crude oil
Thursday, February 11
8:30 USD unemployment claims
10:00 USD Fed President Yellen Testifies
5:30 p.m. AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
Friday, February 12th
2:00 EUR German Preliminary GDP q / q
8:30 USD Core retail sales m / m
8:30 USD retail sales m / m
10:00 am prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment USD
* All times EST
for a full list of events planned for the visit of the foreign exchange market the economic calendar MarketPulse
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