AUD remained bearish despite better than expected trade balance released today. November Trade Balance thrust to 5 month low, reaches -0.12B AUD AUD against -0.30B expected. This should have been a bullish catalyst for AUD as this is an indication that less money circulating outside the country. However, AUD / USD failed to stay above 0.894 support and we will now trade under the floor of consolidation with prices attempting to test the 0.894 resistance turned support.
To be fair, it should be noted that sentiment bearish AUD / USD was already high. Companions may Currencies GBP / USD and EUR / USD actually mobilized during US session yesterday and although AUD / USD push up, the scale is smaller than the other 2. Prices also started pushing lower heavily just before the trade Balance figures were released, most likely due to the bearish rejection 0.897 resistance. However, it should be noted that risk appetite in Australia is actually upward with the main stock index ASX 0 gained more than 0.25% now. Therefore, it is clear that bearish sentiment is strong, and suspect that AUD / USD may be even lower if not for the upward thrust of the trade balance number.
Time Table
Given this strong canvas bearish cross, it is unlikely that the price can be able go back above 0.894, and a push towards recent swing low of 0,885 is possible. However, since the stochastic readings are close to the oversold region, bears may find significant support from 0.89 round number and flexible support seen during the first 2 days of trading in 2014.
If 0.894 is violated because the declining prospects should be revised because it suggests that the bearish rejection of 0.897 can be a little too aggressive and we may see an upward acceleration can occur to 0.897.
Daily chart
bearish outlook on daily chart remains in play with 0882 Top Channel and as downside targets. With this in mind, even if prices push higher in the short term, do not expect to be broken 0.897 and 0.894 new test likely remains the bullish scenario S / T should occur.
Links:
GBP / USD - Active Paper as the UK, US services PMIs Dip
USD / CAD - Higher as Markets Await US PMI Release
USD / JPY - Yen continues Pressure Greenback
This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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