Friday, May 13 :. That markets speak of
A consolidated trading week is finally over. It was difficult for speculators without much market indications.
This week, in particular, the negotiation was feeling "back and forth" because of a lack of conviction in the market as to whether the scenario of global economic growth is lower than normal positive or negative for the big dollar. "
overnight, the dollar found some traction on the Fed rate normalization speaking one day after suffering large losses on the back of a US print disappointing weekly claims.
investors get to close this week get another look at the uS economy. the focus is on the uS consumer that we get retail sales data for April and University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment survey from May within hours.
1. market, not Fed, caught behind the curve
the USD facilitated by the continuation of the Fed talking about the need for a gradual normalization of rates and flow on continued risk aversion sentiment safe haven.
Less dovish Fed-speech Thursday night Rosengren (Boston) and Mester (Cleveland) emphasized that markets are "expectations" undervaluation of continued Fed hikes this year.
With assumed rate differential premium in play again, it was natural that the "big" dollar would see some support overnight, but so far, it is well content (€ 1 1332, £ 1.4402, a $ 0.7282, C $ 1.2872)
Rosengren has approved more increases, indicating that early Q2 data is compatible with inflation close to their desired target + 2%, while Mester also noted that US inflation is rising to the desired levels of the Fed.
Fed funds futures suggests that the market is not convinced of a Fed rate saving any time soon.
2. Asian investors unconvinced of the Fed's increase is
This week saw a request for Registration for the debt-product US the world is scouring the world to return now that central banks play with the negative interest rate policies (NIRP).
Japanese investors remain a big fan of Treasury bonds U.S. institutional investors in Japan have helped drive the record + 73.5% indirect auction auction Wednesday to 10 years' (yield + 1.714%).
Their hunger for positive returns have occurred while the dollar (¥ 108.65) rebounded against the yen. The rally in the yen this year does not seem to be deterring Asian to hijack U.S. assets
This suggests that the world is hungry for high quality bonds with positive returns. If the market really believes the Fed to be very slow to raise rates is + 1.50% of U.S. 10-year yields on the cards?
3. US weekly claims at 15-month high
The market appears to have rejected the disappointing US weekly claims last week with ease, despite it being a new record of 15 months. Why? Everyone is happy to blame the "cable company".
The + 20k rise in jobless claims (+ 294K vs 274K +) was largely driven by a jump from one state, New York.
analysts blame the national increase US on Verizon strike of workers in this sate. Verizon workers walkout began in mid-April and New York offers jobless benefits once an employer "hiring permanent replacement workers." Verizon had supposedly had done this in the past two weeks.
Analysts also not in the absence of the Empire State numbers - initial claims remains at historically low levels. This suggests that the Fed President Yellen and friends are not to worry about the US employment situation so early and not even after a total failure of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) print last week ( + 0k vs. + 0k).
4. Carney faces Brexit Dam Super Thursday
Bank of (BoE) Governor Carney of England n ' has not held yesterday on the risks to the UK economy more Brexit. A vote to leave could lead to a "significantly weaker path for growth and a much higher path for inflation", the British pound could fall "significantly" and BoE policymakers would face a "difficult compromise." In translation, the UK would be facing a recession.
While promising to act accordingly, Carney reminded investors that monetary policy alone can not compensate for all the effects of a shock to economy UK
the IMF seems to be in agreement with the governor. This morning, the book tries to push lower (£ 1.4404) after the IMF warned that a vote in the UK to exit EU in a referendum on June 23 could hurt the economy, causing it to shrink by between -1% and -9% over the long term.
5. global stock markets are on the back foot
world stocks see read while gold ($ 1,275) and JPY (¥ 108.65) then strengthened as investors are cautious before US data today.
Another day of pessimistic reports profits of large US retailers yesterday is to keep relatively moderate US exchanges this week. Things can turn around with the retransmission of retail sales of US print?
In commodities, Brent crude oil fell by 0.7% to $ 47.75 a barrel and West Texas -1.6% to $ 45.93
Indices :. Stoxx 50 -0.7% in 2914, -0.7% in 6061 FTSE, DAX -0.6% in 9805, -0.7% CAC-40 in 4264, IBEX-35 at 0.5% 8621, FTSE MIB -0.9% to 17,499, SMI -0.6% in 7837, S & P 500 Futures -0.4%
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