The Canadian dollar has had a bumpy ride this week. With little Canadian economic data this week and the market activity of Chinese week long vacation capping the CAD was in reactive mode to the two major events of the week. two testimonies of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, one in Congress and one in the Senate on monetary policy were taken together as status quo for the USD as they took the higher interest rates in March on the table the Fed is more likely to wait for better national and international growth indicators before committing to a second rate hike. The market now expects the rate hike to be later in the year and in some scenarios may not be for all in 2016 if the global slowdown continues.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was quoted as saying that the budget will not be weighted by the end of his term, if current macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate. the budget next month, the first in this new Liberal government, is expected to include the fiscal stimulus. What is the subject of speculation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) also expects the real budget to analyze changes in monetary policy it needs to implement if the fiscal stimulus fails to revive the economy. PM Trudeau highlighted the negative impact that oil prices have on the Canadian economy.
The Canadian dollar has managed to earn a small gain on the week to 0.34 percent compared to USD as the USD / CAD ended the week at 1.3852. The biggest gain for the Canadian dollar came on the back of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) comments of a possible production cut agreement. Until now, the market is going by the words of Minister of the United Arab Emirates Energy. Neither Saudi Arabia or Iran denied or confirmed this possibility. It would mark a bold move by OPEC to reach an agreement given the internal division between producers who desperately need higher oil prices to balance their budgets, such as Venezuela, and those, like Saudi Arabia which can tighten the belt in exchange for market share against lower-cost competitors.
USD / CAD broke the 1.40 level of prices this week, but comments from OPEC taken as far as 1.3788. The better than expected US retail sales gave the USD a little boost before the long weekend in the United States and Canada.
Canadian merchants have manufacturing, securities purchases, sales and inflation data to guide next week. manufacturing data will be given a strength of 1.0 percent growth last month that beat expectations. The weaker currency helped Canadian products to gain a competitive advantage abroad and it is expected that the trend will see in the report sales of manufacturing the next week. Inflation and sales could paint divergent trends in the Canadian economy. Inflation is expected to increase slightly by 0.2 percent while import prices increased, while sales continue to be lower with sales in core retail expected to contract by 0.5 percent, while adding auto sales will drive the lowest at 0.8 percent according to estimates.
CAD events to watch next week:
Tuesday, February 16
8:30 Manufacturing sales CAD m / m
Wednesday, February 17
8:30 CAD foreign securities Purchases
Thursday, February 18
8:30 CAD Wholesale Sales m / m
Friday, February 19
8:30 CAD core CPI m / m
8:30 CAD core retail sales m / m
8:30 CAD CPI m / m
8:30 CAD retail sales m / m
* All times EST
for a full list of events planned in the foreign exchange market check the economic calendar MarketPulse
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