rupee bounced back yesterday, trading under the 61.0 support a more important key below the swing low last Friday - where USD / INR rally this week started. By trading below 61.0, the rally was invalidated, and the short-term pressure is downward. When considering that USD is actually trading mostly higher against other major currencies, it is interesting that rupee managed to strengthen against the greenback as the rest of the world actually bought USD following the postponement of a US defect 6 weeks.
The reason for this seems to be building talks between the government and global banks to include Indian sovereign bonds in global bond indices. If the Indian government get what they want, the Indian foreign purchases of bonds increases significantly, which could bring $ 20 - 40 billion entries in India each year, contributing instead of the leak foreign investment (FI) that was the main culprit for the slide in 2013. Rupee these new receive a positive reaction for most sea Rupee traders - a very good sign as it suggests that we may even see a temporary slowdown the output of foreign funds for the moment that these FI may just want to keep their money in India to buy bonds Rupee when they are able to do so.
timetable
from the technical point of view we do not see grow downward more significant after the break 60, 9 resistance, price negotiation between the side 60.7 to 60.9 most of the Asian session. Nevertheless, the overall bias is bearish with prices 60.9 tests a few times but ultimately failed. Stochastic supports a downward thrust with the curve Stoch face "resistance" around the level of 55.0. If the curve Stoch indeed head low with USD / INR break 60.70, we could see a continuation to head to the round number 60.0 price.
Weekly Chart
weekly chart is very bearish at present, as the latest sell-off may be interpreted as bearish rejection Top Channel, which helps to affirm the escape (or failure) of the Channel. However, it is unlikely to be reached on Channel Bottom is bearish alone the price has actually came out more than 10% and a significant withdrawal is late. Stochastic indicator gives weight to this assertion with values close to the oversold region, with the curve Stoch likely to hit the oversold region when the price reaches 59.0 -. the lower end of the consolidation area in July
Basically, nothing has changed much in economic prospects in India. Inflation continues to roar, to September Wholesale prices are expected to rise nearly 6.10% increase in August due to imports of more expensive food and fuel. On the other hand, it is expected industrial production and overall economic activity to decline. IMF recently slash growth forecasts for India to 3.8%, much lower than the previous 5.6% outlook, the biggest drop among all the damage. With a weakening economy and continuing inflation, it is likely that financial institutions will continue to leave the country, and may even accelerate when US straighten their disorder.
Seasonal India tend to see huge gold imports during the month of October for their Deepavali celebrations, where gold is typically given as gifts. Since the price of gold has decreased significantly since September, demand for gold may be even greater, and offset the costly taxes and restrictions that RBI has done to limit Rupee outputs. Therefore, traders should not just assume that it will be a bearish smooth road for USD / INR before
Links:
GBP / USD - Based on support. Level at 1.5950
AUD / USD - remains low with solid support at 0.94
EUR / USD - found strong support at 1.35
This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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