Monday, May 2 :. That markets speak of
is a holiday shortened trading week for some (China, Singapore, Taiwan, United Kingdom and Ireland), but for others it is planned be a busy week.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets this week to come - no change in the overnight rate should, however, chances have decreased since the report tepid inflation last week.
Moreover, manufacturing and PMI composite for April will be released and digested in the world.
Brokers and investors will sign with the week of April and U.S. jobs reports from Canada. Can two economies continue with such stellar monthly print?
1. China PMIs slow slightly, but remain in expansion
The official China PMI were a mixed bag - both were down slightly from the levels in March, but remained in expansion.
China April PMI manufacturing (of government official :. vs. 50.1 50.3e - second straight extension; non-manufacturing (services) PMI 53.5 vs. 53.8 prior
among the key "manufacture" components - new export orders matched the title with 50.1 vs. 50.2 m / m, employment continues to remain under pressure at 47.8 compared to 48.1 m / m while input prices peaked several months of 57.6 v 55.3 m / m
positive for both currencies and commodities sensitive commodities, analysts note that stocks commodities fell to a new five-month low of 55.3 compared to 57.6 m / m, which perhaps suggests that we have reached a peak in abundance?
2 Japan: .. unilateral speculative movements in FX are a concern
It is not a surprise to see that the Japanese authorities are concerned about the recent currency moves .
Night, Finance Minister Aso of Japan again reiterated its view that speculative movements in one direction in FX were "extremely disturbing." He promised that the authorities would continue to monitor the markets and take the necessary measures. However, his comments have done little to stop the escalation of the yen.
the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in a surprise move last week was still standing on rates. the market has been punished for their inaction. investors have pushed the yen to hit a fresh 18 months against the dollar (¥ 106.14) in overnight trade.
inaction by the BoJ dashed hopes for more stimulus and forcing the Yen lower door to unwind their "short" positions.
3. RBA risk of monetary policy event
monetary policy "event risk" moves down under Australia, where the soft Aussie CPI data last week made a much closer decision by Governor Stevens and company tomorrow.
The RBA is facing one of its most difficult decisions in a while, backed into a corner between a lower interest rate to compensate for lower prices, or to maintain stable rates avoid injury "pension savers" and fueling new doubts about the strength of the economy
as we get closer to the decision, fixed income markets are slightly leaning towards a cut -25bp with a probability of just over 50% (+ 53% -. with respect to a near impossibility there a week).
Overnight data would support a cut, but the immediate problem is would the banks get that?
4. US Treasury publishes semi-annual report on currency
the Treasury department US has five new countries on their new "watch list" (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Germany).
Treasury found that no economy currently meets all "three" criteria to be designated as a currency manipulator; However, five major trading partners appointed met two of the three criteria.
The report calls the recent movements in the yen "orderly" and also urged Japan to join G-20 and G-7 commitments on exchange rate policies. This is in sharp contrast to the Japanese authorities - their description of yen movements as "one-sided" and speculative driven.
5. Gold hits new highs shy of $ 1.300.
spot price of gold managed to hit a new 15-month high earlier this morning, supported by a weaker dollar and increased demand for safe havens.
The metal "yellow" rallied to $ 1,298.17 ahead of the NY open, up 0.4% from Friday's close.
For many, it is expected to be only a matter of time before gold will be able to push through the psychological $ 1300 handle.
The U.S. dollar fell 2% last week after the Fed said it would be slow to raise interest rates this year. Do not help the dollar "powerful" was the BoJ left its monetary policy unchanged.
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