Monday, June 13: Five Things the markets speak of
There are several critical events which will take place over the next two weeks will keep capital participants on their toes.
This week will be dominated by the activity of the central bank and rhetoric. While next week the focus is on the UK and Euro accession referendum (June 23).
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Bank of England (BoE) with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) all meet in the second half of this week . There is no change in policy provided by an institution, but it is what policy makers say that actually dictate the direction of the capital market.
The most important will be the Fed. the U.S. makers will release their "dot plot" - projected interest rate-14 pm EDT on Wednesday, along with a policy statement and new forecasts of economists. It will be followed by a much-anticipated press conference by Fed President Janet Yellen.
1. worries Brexit cripple Sterling
risk aversion remains the dominant feeling for the third straight trading session.
The financial markets are clearly getting nervous with the latest polls in the UK over the weekend showing grows and perhaps even a slight advance for the pro-Brexit camp.
The ability of the UK vote to leave the EU at the referendum next week (June 23) sent the pound plummeting to a new two-month low of 1.4118 and £ outright € 0.7985 against the euro.
Against pairs of refuge, he fell more than 1.4% against the best performing currency of the day, the Japanese yen, hitting ¥ 149.56, its lowest mark in nearly three years and a two-month low against the Swiss franc around £ 1.3626
GBP a month implied volatility (the request for the protection of options) hit 28.15 this morning, -. this is above the peak of 28.0 at the end of 08 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This suggests that investors fear a greater potential for pound in the fall if the U.K. vote to leave the EU.
ORB / Independent Online poll: 45% for staying in the EU, 55% for holidays (49% before to stay in, 51% for holidays)
Sky News: 47% for staying in the EU, 53% leave
Opinium poll: 44% for 'stay' in the EU, 42% for "leave" (43% before remaining 41% leave)
times YouGov poll: 42% remain in the EU, 43% left (before 43% for staying in the EU, 42% from)
2. positioning risk aversion dominates
growing anxiety over the prospect UK EU output is spooking global investor and hammer action.
The stock indices start falling sharply the trading week as investors remain risk averse before the main meetings of the central bank this week and the coming weeks in the UK Brexit referendum.
European stocks fell for a fourth day on the back sliding Asian stocks to a new two-month low.
Indices: Stoxx 50 -1.5% in 2870, -0.4% in 6093 FTSE, DAX -1.4% in 9697, -1.5% CAC-40 in 4244, IBEX-35 -1.6% in 8355, FTSE MIB -2.4% to 16,715, SMI -1.1% in 7835, S & P 500 Futures -0.3%
3. Soft China data but watching ......
in versions of one night in May China's economic data was broadly in line or more sweet than expected.
The fixed urban investment growth slowed to a multi-year low as the sale of property value and the construction activity experienced major declines (fixed urban assets YTD, Y / Y + 9.6% against + 10.5% e).
Industrial production in China was seen as more mixed. Analysts note that the production of energy recovered from the decline last month, while crude steel production saw a slightly higher growth, even if the overall impression of title was as expected (+ 6.0 % against + 6.0% e).
Added the evidence that the world's second largest economy is stabilizing, Bureau Stats China noted that overall employment is stable and investment is growing, despite the second economy in the world ever face uncertainties.
4. Crude and gold are separated
Oil prices are the start of the new week in the red after US drilling data showed another increase. higher crude oil prices encourage producers to restart the closed wells and possibly increase supply.
Brent briefly fell below $ 50 a barrel for the first time in a week, while WTI futures are trading up 1% to $ 48.59 a barrel we head stateside .
Crude prices rallied more than + 80% from its lows in mid-February, supported by the Nigerian production outages in Canada and lower production in the US
Gold is trading above its four high -Week ($ 1,286.70) supported by a benign policy of the Fed and the safe haven demand due to vote next Brexit the UK
5. overall performance continue to decline
debt Document G7 continues to rally hard with the selloff in global equities.
The yield on German Bunds to 10 years touched a low of + 0.01% that the ECB launched corporate bond purchases as part of its quantitative easing program in progress . Dealers believe it is only a matter of time before the trade German 10 below zero in negative territory.
The gilt of the 10-year yield also reached a low of + 1.21% this morning. 10 years and 20 years of Japan JGB yields are now trading more deeply in negative territory. The yield on the JGB 10-year Japan is the record level of -0.145%.
With domestic yields so low, investors continue to travel the world for returns. It is the foreign demand that the US Treasury also offers better curve.
The US 10-year yield fell by + 1.80% ahead of payrolls last month compared to + 1.625% this morning, its lowest level since February.
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