The Canadian dollar was stable before a busy week. Monday proved the calm before the storm that few economic releases were released and the USD recovered slightly ahead of retail sales data tomorrow, US OSA. The DAC will wait until Wednesday to support the data with the release of Canadian manufacturing sales.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has endorsed the efforts of the Canadian government to be a test case in the implementation of fiscal stimulus measures to accelerate growth . It is too early to tell whether the partnership between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Government will give positive results that the package announced in March will start to show its impact in the fall.
Bank of Canada (BoC) has determined that the risks to the financial system of the Canadian housing sector were weighted by the improving economy. Rising real estate prices in Toronto and Vancouver continue to be a concern that borrowers continue to incur significant debt. Governor Stephen Poloz was optimistic about the economic recovery and is confident that the central bank has made the necessary changes to keep the housing market in check.
The objective of the market will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will conclude with the publication of the statement Wednesday at 14:00 EDT and the press conference with President Yellen at 14:30 EDT. The market has all but written off a rate hike and the language of the statement and the answers given by the head of the Fed will provide further information on the way to the next rate hike.
USD / CAD gained 0,084 percent over the past 24 hours. The currency pair is trading at 1.2792 in low liquidity session where the Canadian dollar is stable pending the release of the retail sales of US tomorrow. The US consumer has been a paradox that has been hard to call for investors. Consumer confidence is high, but it wasn, AOT until last month that the expenses were increasing in height. Analysts are divided on the strength of the latest figures from Mount AOS due tomorrow at 8:30. Retail sales are expected at 0.4 per cent for both basic reports and title. It is a continent to see a slowdown in growth after last month, impressive AOS (1.3 percent of retail sales and 0.8 percent for sales in core retail).
the price of oil has not been able to break above $ 50 after net income different factors were negative for crude oil. West Texas Intermediate was down 0.016 percent. ongoing disruptions in Nigeria have boosted crude oil prices at the beginning of the session in North America, but the number of US oil rigs were rising triggering concerns about a more permanent oversupply in contrasts with the temporary disruptions in Nigeria and Canada.
June Fed rate DOA But July and September Rising
The FOMC statement released on April 27 provided few clues on what the Fed members thought . The US economy has seen improvement, but after a difficult start of the year, the market had stripped back the number of rate increases to 1-2 this year. This meeting was no press conference so that all investors is due to three weeks later, the minutes of that meeting were published. The story suddenly changed without a central bank commitment with minor changes to a statement, a pro-active FOMC awaited economic recovery enough signal to start another increase in interest rates. Rising rate rose in June from a non-event back on the table and triggered a USD rally. Mixed economic data and in particular the lower than expected NFP that only added 38,000 jobs put back probabilities to single digits.
CME FedWatch tools shows a 4 percent chance of a change in interest rates, Wednesday, June 15. On July FOMC (no press conference) has a 24 percent rate hike in September (press conference) 38 percent in November (no press conference) 41 percent
and December (conference press) 60 percent. It will be interesting to see how the point parcel published Wednesday, June 15 games against market expectations. Given the presidential race will be in full swing in September, it might be less likely that the Fed will act, leaving in July (no press conference) and December (press conference) that clear options.
The Canadian data were mixed this month and this week proposed a similar scenario playing with manufacturing sales, crude oil inventories in the United States on Wednesday, and the price index (CPI) on Friday. The Fed decision, AOS on rates and the language with which they communicate the decision will be the main driver of the market and the Canadian dollar traders should be prepared in case the Fed decides to act proactively in advance of this which is looking like a contentious presidential election and more space, it can give to candidates without intervention by the Fed best
CAD market events to watch this week :.
Tuesday, June 14
8: 30am USD Core Retail Sales m / m
8:30 USD Retail Sales m / m
Wednesday 15 June
8:30 CAD manufacturing sales m / m
8: 30am USD PPI m / M0.3% 0.2%
10:30 am USD crude oil Inventories
2:00 FOMC economic Projections pm USD
USD FOMC Statement 2:00 p.m.
2:00 pm USD federal funds rate
2:30 p.m. USD FOMC Press Conference
7:55 p.m. CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
interim Statement monetary policy JPY
Thursday, June 16
Attempting JPY BOJ Press conference
8:30 USD CPI m / m
8:30 USD base CPI m / m
08:30 USD Fed Manufacturing index Philly
8:30 USD unemployment claims
Friday, June 17
8:30 basic CAD CPI m / m
08:30 USD building permits
* All times EDT
for a full list of events planned in the foreign exchange market, visit the economic calendar MarketPulse
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