Tuesday, June 14: Five Things the markets speak of
Investors continued the search for security is lifting the historical road of the currency pairs and gold ($ 1,280) in trade overnight.
Yen (¥ 105.73) and CHF ($ 0.9640) continue to rise sharply as worries about the possibility of a vote to leave the EU the UK referendum next week, the fall in global equities and German Bund yields moving in negative territory encourages this movement towards safer assets perceived.
Being a week of heavily loaded central bank (FOMC, BoJ, BoE and SNB) natural for the market to trim a percentage of their positions ahead of monetary policy announcements.
1. Global stock markets retreat
World stocks extended their losses today as uncertainty about the future meetings of central banks, the global economy and UK referendum push investors next week to safer assets.
The Stoxx Europe 0 was down 1.1% in early trade, following losses yesterday on Wall Street. The S & P 500 fell 0.8% to 2079.06, its lowest level in almost three weeks.
Brexit polls continue to reduce, triggering concerns about the future of the economy and the health of its financial markets in the UK
Banks and energy stocks leading the losses in Europe before the open stateside, as Brent crude oil fell to -1.2% $ 49.77 a barrel. Investors are also looking ahead to central bank meetings this week for clarity on the future of monetary policy
Indices :. Nikkei 225 -1.4%, S & P / ASX -2.0%, Kospi -0.4%, -0.3% Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng -0.3%, S & P500 flat in September 2070. Stoxx 50 -1.5% in 2820, -1.2% in 5970 FTSE, DAX -1.3% in 9535, CAC-40 -1.3% at 4,170, IBEX-35 -1.1% in 8215, FTSE MIB -1.0% to 16,460, SMI -1.4% in 7671, S & P 500 Futures -0.4%
2. Bunds rally negative territory
with investors favoring safer assets, yields on global government bonds continue to fall to new record lows. This morning, the yield of the German 10-year Bund fell below zero for the first time to -0.004%.
With the ECB compete with investors for the product, the purchase by the central bank also helps to drive yields on government debt of the lower EU. The ECB does not buy government bonds if yields are lower than the deposit rate of the central bank - currently at 0.4%. This means that half of the outstanding German bonds is now excluded from the list of purchases of the ECB.
This German product demand will only continue to tighten supply conditions. The yield on the 10 US dropped more than + 1.577% against 1.616% at the close yesterday.
3. The price of oil and gold diverge
Oil prices fell to their most points down in 12 days today, the third consecutive day of losses related to another increase in US drilling activity. Currently, higher crude prices led some producers to restart the closed wells and possibly increase supply.
Brent is trading below $ 50 psychological grip barrel ($ 49.77), while WTI futures contracts are trading up 1% to $ 48.59 per barrel that we heading stateside.
crude prices rallied more than + 80% from its lows in mid-February, supported by the Nigerian production outages in Canada and lower production in the US
Gold is trading above its four-week high ($ 1,286.70) supported by a policy of benign Fed and the safe haven demand due to vote Brexit coming to UK
4. Loonie too expensive?
Despite the sensitive commodity currency exchange hand in hand with the prices of commodities, the IMF estimates that the CAD (C $ 1.2855) remains "moderately revised" to + 5%, compared to medium term fundamentals of the country.
In its latest report, the IMF suggests that the loonies depreciation over the past two years - closely linked to crude oil prices fall - has managed to improve the competitiveness of Canadian price exports and supported the team of the economy towards the non-resource sector.
IMF estimates that a lower CAD will not cancel the erosion of the manufacturing sector in the previous decade. As said after the agency, Canada must invest more in capital equipment, employee training and innovation to stimulate growth in areas other than resources and services.
5. price movements Sterling
trading sterling (£ 1.4127) before EU referendum to the vote next week is not for the faint of heart. The erratic and sudden movements intraday price reflects the lack of liquidity in the market, which is causing volatility and sharp fluctuations in prices.
The book is currently swinging on all legitimate polls and unconfirmed. Do not expect market conditions to improve, if the volatility of anything greater should continue until there is more clarity.
The cost of protection options against the pound continues to increase fall as investors become increasingly nervous after the latest opinion polls show an increasing risk of a vote to leave UK the EU at the next week's referendum.
One month implied volatility rallied to + 28.75%, now firmly above the peak around 28% hit in 08.
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