Wednesday, July 20: Five Things the markets speak of
The capital markets are moving despite the waiting game for the direction of monetary policy of central banks level I in the coming weeks (ECB tomorrow).
In yesterday's session, the Dow ended slightly above its record close for the sixth consecutive day but the Nasdaq and S & P fell as markets pared some of their gains required during "risk on the bargaining event last week. Treasuries rally as commodities decline, and the US dollar index rides his four months on high market expectations for a possible increase in the Fed this year.
The IMF has again entered the fray and cut its global growth forecast for the next two years, citing uncertainty Brexit. The Fed next to her is "lower for longer" necessary or more stimuli in the coming weeks of the G10 central banks. These decisions are expected to dominate the commercial direction.
1. dollar gains across the board, but ....
the quotation areas will dominate.
the powerful "buck" continues to find support and has largely won that week after recent strong US data marks a rate hike most likely Fed.
with the market continuing to reprice Fed increased probability rate (Fed funds Sept 18%, Dec + 39 8%), the dollar index has managed to reach its highest level in more than four months.
Night, EUR briefly surveyed his three-week low just below the level of € 1.10. Nevertheless, markets focus will now turn to the ECB meeting tomorrow, which is expected policymakers to follow the example of the BoE and take a "wait and see attitude" for now, but the tone of Draghi will be monitored closely in the post-Brexit environment.
USD / JPY (¥ 106.50) continues to trade on spreads (BoJ should provide a stimulus July 29), while the pound sterling (£ 1.3183) found some support after British data on the labor market this morning showed a smaller than expected increase in the number of beneficiaries for June (+ 0.4K vs. + 4.1k). U.K. The unemployment rate for May also came to 4.9%, below expectations for + 5%.
2. Bond prices, up or down?
In the U.S., both the bull and bear bond camps have attracted new support. The latest weekly survey JPMorgan shows the share of investors expecting higher bond prices rose to + 26% from + 18% there is a week as declines expect increased to + 16% from + 11% .
yield US 10-year Treasury (+ 1.56%) increased slightly from its record level (+ 1.366%), and last week posted the biggest one-week increase of more than a year. Few expect a sharp rise in bond yields. US Treasury bonds remain attractive with a record amount of negative return of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe.
Provide support for European debt this week (-0.03%) Bunds was disappointing report yesterday from Germany on business confidence. The print title, the biggest economy in the eurozone, fell to the lowest level in four years (ZEW -6.8 vs 8), showing the impact of the U.K. vote to leave the EU last month.
Market players remain cautious before the ECB meeting tomorrow, especially now that the IMF reduced growth forecasts.
3. Critical global bourses mixed
Global stock markets remain mixed as macro themes of slowing global growth and better than US should benefit from high technology and financial names continued to dominate the proceedings.
Before the US Open, Euro stock indexes are trading more paring back the losses seen in yesterday's trading, following the general risk on sentiment seen post-Brexit. However, wait until the market is cautious before the announcement of the ECBs policy tomorrow, particularly after the IMF cut its global economic growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.2%.
Inventories of raw materials and mining led the losses in the FTSE 100, while financial and technology names are led gains in the Eurostoxx. Expect a plethora of US reports winner to influence market direction
Indices :. Stoxx 50 + 1.0% to 2963, FTSE + 0.5% to 6729, DAX + 1.2% to 10 096, CAC-40 + 1.2% in 4382, IBEX-35 + 1.0% 8566, FTSE MIB + 0.8% to 16,800, SMI + 0.8% in 8178, S & P 500 Futures 0.3%
4 . Commodities
crude oil prices are edging higher this morning, supported by expectations that US crude inventories have contracted last week. Nevertheless, expect these gains to remain limited by the high scenario stock.
Brent was up 0.4% to $ 46.86 a barrel, while WTI futures are trading up 0.2% to $ 44.74 a barrel before the US open.
The crude oversupply is expected to continue its snowball effect, as the "glut" will be turned into a glut of gasoline and other fuels.
Again, the market is expected to head the EIA report today - dealers evaluate inventory levels and if the recent rebound in prices fueled boom in shale players up 'exit if this will delay the much needed rebalancing of the market provided more.
investors need to focus more attention on how the inventory levels of distillates and gasoline have changed, not just gross levels. Dealers expect a levy -1.7m barrels last week, while gasoline inventories fell -100k barrels and distillate inventories rose + 700k.
5. Turkey cut interest rates
There was not too much of a surprise to the market see Turkey's central bank cut one of its key rates for the fifth consecutive month after the coup last week fears about possible repercussions for the economy triggered.
The MPC reduced the overnight lending rate to + 8.75% from 9%. It has maintained its repo rate by a week of stable reference to + 7.5% and its lending rate overnight at + 7.25%.
Turkish politicians have reduced the interest rate corridor ceiling of 10.75% over the last five months, capping borrowing costs for Turkish lenders in an attempt to help support Economic Growth.
The central bank noted that market developments will be closely monitored and the necessary liquidity measures continue to be taken to support financial stability.
The rate of the central bank move came after policy makers said Sunday a series of measures in an effort to calm investors after the attempted failed coup.
TRY ($ 3.0271) continues to trade under pressure, unable to recover from his first slide 5% against the dollar Friday. Capital markets are affected by President Erdogan and how he quickly consolidated his power by eliminating his opponents after the failed coup.
[ad_2]
Read More: Sterling Marches Higher For Now
0 Komentar untuk "Sterling Marches Higher For Now"